tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124539381685751273.post6779459115073430804..comments2015-05-03T08:16:59.739-07:00Comments on Skeptic's Play: Sleeping beauty and quantum mechanicsmillerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05990852054891771988noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124539381685751273.post-82103998764311183172015-01-12T07:57:16.725-08:002015-01-12T07:57:16.725-08:00Imagine a slight change to the SB problem: We wake...Imagine a slight change to the SB problem: We wake her both days, using the memory wipe in between. We move her into a red room to ask for her probability assignment UNLESS it is Tuesday and the coin landed Heads; in that case, we use a blue room.<br /><br />Before we move her, she knows that P(Heads&Mon.) = P(Tails&Mon.) = P(Heads&Tue.) = P(Tails&Tue.) = 1/4. So if we move her into a red room, she can deduce P(Heads|Red) = P(Heads&Red)/P(Red) = P(Heads&Mon.)/[1-P(Heads&Tue.)] = (1/4)/(3/4) = 1/3.<br /><br />It does not matter how she would have known it was Tuesday after Heads rolled when she knows that it isn't. All that is important is that she knows it isn't Tuesday after Heads rolled, which is the exact same knowledge she has in the original problem. The answer is 1/3.<br /><br />Halfers confuse themselves by treating the observation of an outcome with the occurrence of the outcome a part of that outcome. Tuesday happens after Heads is rolled, even in the original experiment. How, or Whether, Sleeping Beauty would observe it is irrelevant. The Quantum Mechanics issue is whether this is still true, not what the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem is.millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05990852054891771988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124539381685751273.post-4435061267131206912014-07-29T08:49:20.171-07:002014-07-29T08:49:20.171-07:00Peter Lewis argued that the two problems are equiv...Peter Lewis argued that the two problems are equivalent, and therefore the thirder argument also applies to the three-branch-beauty. Carroll and Sebens, however, argue that they are not equivalent. The key difference is that in the two-branch problem, waking up on Monday with tails has the same amplitude as waking up on Monday with heads. In the three-branch-problem, these cases do not have the same amplitude.millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05990852054891771988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124539381685751273.post-80716279512615136422014-07-29T06:19:31.740-07:002014-07-29T06:19:31.740-07:00Hey, im unsure why the 'thirder' option do...Hey, im unsure why the 'thirder' option does not apply to the three-branch-beauty as well as the two-branch one if they are equivalent (im guessing its got do to with the fact that there's not really a second measurement happening in the two-branch-beauty).millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05990852054891771988noreply@blogger.com